With a population of around 9.5 million (2019), Belarus represent a relatively small portion, 0.18% of the global GHG emissions. In 2018, CO₂ emissions per capita for Belarus was 6.8 mt, and though the indicator fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to increase. The carbon intensity of the economy in the period 1995-2012 decreased almost 4 times, making it the fastest rate of progress toward low-carbon development in Europe. In Belarus, energy and agriculture are the two sectors with the largest GHG emission shares, 66.8% and 25% respectively, and this is where the majority of the mitigation potential lies. As an Annex I country, in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Belarus made an unconditional quantified emission reduction target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 28 per cent by 2030, compared to 1990 base year.

The country faces significant climate change related threats. Temperatures, floods, droughts, and precipitation patterns have begun to diverge from historical patterns, which will impact multiple sectors. Water, while abundant within Belarus, may deteriorate in quality due to increased flooding, extreme rain events, and changes in runoff patterns. Furthermore, changing rainfall patterns and flooding may alter the distribution of dangerous radionuclides, particularly in food and water resources, found in southern Belarus as a result of the 1986 Chernobyl accident. In a country with almost 43% forested land, rising temperatures are likely to change ecosystem function, forest composition, and certain species of trees, such as spruce, will suffer. Drought and increased temperatures could make forests more vulnerable to climate-related threats, such as disease outbreaks and forest fires. The most vulnerable sectors are agriculture, human health, forestry, water resources, and energy.

There are various binding legislative provisions and other regulations in effect in Belarus, specifying policies and measures with targets for reduction of GHG emissions and reducing the energy intensity of the economy. The National Sustainable Development Strategy for the period 2021-2030, places due emphasis on low-emission development. Belarus adopted a green economy strategy until 2030, with a focus on green innovation, improving people’s quality of life and increasing the competitiveness of the national economy. The government has also been integrating the SDGs into national development planning, having invested in both legal frameworks and public campaigns for action in this area. In terms of sustainable energy, Belarus has started to electrify its transport infrastructure and invest in energy efficiency. It has also been actively supporting decentralized solar energy systems with a focus on hospitals, schools and other public buildings.

The National Designated Authority in the climate change area is the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection.

Climate policy development and advancing cooperation with EU in Belarus

EU4Climate key policy interventions and expected impact

Armenia is a country with an ambitious climate change agenda, which makes significant efforts towards low carbon development through increasing the share of renewable energy, promoting energy efficiency, preserving and enhancing forest covered areas and reporting regularly to the UNFCCC. However, as a developing country, Armenia needs international financial, technological and capacity building support. EU4Climate programme, funded by the European Union, aims to support the development and implementation of climate-related policies in Armenia.

The Government of the Republic of Belarus pays considerable attention to the problems of climate change and has in place some strategic policies and measures aimed at sustainable and green development. Together with sustainable energy and energy efficiency, the importance of measures to improve the quality of sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases is emphasized, as forests occupy a vast part of its territory. Belarus reporting under the UNFCCC follows the stringent rules for the developed countries. However as a country with an economy in transition, and possessing insufficient capacity to meet the challenges of the transition to low-emission and climate resilient development, it is eligible for international climate change support.

EU4Climate Action, funded by the European Union, aims to support the development and implementation of climate-related policies by the Eastern Partnership countries. Specifically, this project seeks to support Belarus in meeting its commitments under the Paris Agreement, through providing support to decision-makers and planners in preparing and adopting an enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution in 2020, and the required low carbon and climate resilient development strategic documents for its implementation. Throughout the project EU and best international practises will be applied, including some alignment with the EU acquis.

EU4Climate Belarus: key results achieved in 2019

The project is pending registration by the government of Belarus as of March 2020. The expected registration timeline is mid-2020.

A workplan to update the NDC of Belarus was developed by UNDP in 2019 and had to be revalidated in 2020 due to changes in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection.  The updated NDC of Belarus is expected to be developed by November 2020.