With a population of around 3.03 million (2022), Moldova contributes as little as 0.022% to total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is among the lowest in the region in terms of per capita footprint, with 4.4 tCO₂e.

Key emitting sectors in 2022:

The Energy Sector constitutes the most important source of total national direct greenhouse gas emissions, with 69.2% (2022). Other relevant sources of direct greenhouse gas emissions are the Agriculture Sector (10.1% in 2022), Waste Sector (10.8% in 2022), and Industrial Processes and Product Use Sector (6.7% in 2022).

Between 1990 and 2022, total direct GHG emissions showed a downward trend: emissions from the Energy Sector decreased by about 75.1%, those from the IPPU Sector by about 43.9%, from the Agriculture Sector by 73.4%, from the LULUCF Sector by 125.1%, and from the Waste Sector by 14.5%.

In the period 1990-2020, the LULUCF sector was a source of net carbon removals in the Republic of Moldova. In 2021, this sector became a net source of emissions nationwide. Between 1990 and 2022, the evolution of net CO2 removals/emissions recorded a downward trend, decreasing from -1.68 Mt CO2 equivalent in 1990 to +0.42 Mt CO2 equivalent in 2022. The main driver of this shift was the conversion of forest land and cropland, deforestation, and increased illegal logging, along with reduced forest regeneration. In its updated Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0 (NDC), submitted by the Republic of Moldova to the UNFCCC in April 2025, the country committed to a slightly higher target than in its second NDC. The new absolute economy-wide unconditional target is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 71% below 1990 levels by 2030, with up to 73% conditional on access to international support, technical cooperation and technology transfer. The new targets represent the enhanced ambition as compared to 70% and and subsequently 88% committed in NDC 2.0.

Concomitantly, the country’s absolute, economy-wide target for 2035 is to reduce its GHG emissions by 75% (unconditional option) and by 78% (conditioned option) below its 1990 level. The NDC 3.0 reconfirms the country's commitment to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 (non-reducible GHG emissions are compensated by removals in the LULUCF sector) as stipulated by the Law on Climate Actions (2024).

CLIMATE GOVERNANCE

The Law on Climate Action (2024) establishes the legal foundation for climate governance in Moldova, encompassing institutional arrangements, policy architecture, guiding principles, and legal mechanisms aimed at achieving climate neutrality by 2050. The Law defines the roles and responsibilities of national stakeholders in implementing climate policies and measures related to both mitigation and adaptation commitments. It also establishes the National Climate Change Committee as the main inter-institutional body responsible for monitoring progress toward climate neutrality. Furthermore, the Law sets out the national climate policy framework and introduces key principles and instruments to advance climate action, including carbon pricing and the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of carbon emissions necessary to support the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and carbon taxation mechanisms. At the national level, the Republic of Moldova has developed a series of policy and planning documents that establish the framework for combating climate change and promoting sustainable development, such as:

• Climate change is integrated into the country’s main strategic planning document – the National Development Strategy “European Moldova 2030” (2022).
• The Environmental Strategy for the period 2024–2030 (2024) sets out the strategic directions in the field of environmental protection, with a focus on climate change adaptation, carbon emission reduction, and biodiversity conservation. It represents an important step in aligning the Republic of Moldova with international environmental policies and commitments, including those related to environmental management, in line with the objectives established under the Association Agreement with the European Union.
• National Climate Change Adaptation Programme (2023)
  It aims to identify and implement adaptation measures to address climate change across various economic and social sectors. Its objectives include reducing the country’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change—such as the increasing frequency of extreme events (droughts, floods, extreme temperatures)—and protecting the most exposed sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure, health, and water resource management. The programme provides a coherent framework for integrating adaptation measures into national and local policies, thereby strengthening the country’s resilience to climate change.
• Low Emission Development Programme of the Republic of Moldova until 2030 (2023). This programme supports the Republic of Moldova in achieving its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and advancing the transition to a low-carbon economy. It includes measures to promote energy efficiency, the use of renewable energy sources, sustainable transport, and emission reductions in industry. The programme also foresees the implementation of resource efficiency measures, waste reduction, and the adoption of clean technologies, in line with the international commitments under the Paris Agreement.
• National Energy and Climate Action Plan (NECP) (2025). It provides a detailed strategic framework that outlines specific measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency. The plan addresses both the energy sector and climate change, emphasizing the integration of these two areas as essential for achieving a sustainable energy system. The measures included in the NECP are aligned with European energy and climate policies and focus on developing efficient energy infrastructure, increasing the use of renewable energy sources, and supporting innovation in green technologies.
• Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) (2025)
  In line with its commitments under the Paris Agreement, the Republic of Moldova has set clear targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2025-2030 and 2035 perspective.
• National Programme for Forest Expansion and Rehabilitation for 2023–2032 and its Action Plan for 2023–2027 (2023). Forests play a crucial role in combating climate change by absorbing CO₂ and protecting soils against erosion. The Programme aims at expanding and rehabilitating forests, thereby strengthening the country’s capacity to fight climate change and protect biodiversity. The action plan details specific measures to increase forest cover, restore degraded forests, and improve forest resource management. It represents a key element of the national strategy for climate change adaptation.

CLIMATE RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES

According to the NDGAIN vulnerability assessment methodology (BM, 2016), Republic of Moldova ranks as the most climate-vulnerable country in Europe.

The latest assessments of the climate change context and the vulnerability of Moldova’s economy confirm a growing trend: climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of climate-related natural hazards. The Republic of Moldova is particularly susceptible to floods and droughts, with projections indicating that droughts will become longer and more severe. Other extreme weather events and natural hazards likely to intensify under worsening climate conditions include hailstorms, torrential rains, late spring frosts, and strong winds.

These phenomena are anticipated to significantly affect economic growth, particularly in rural areas, which depend heavily on natural resources, are more exposed to climate shocks, and have limited capacity to manage associated risks. Agriculture, water resources, transportation, forestry, as well as human health, are identified as among the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change.

The NDC 3.0 reinforces adaptation as a core pillar of Moldova’s climate policy, placing emphasis on climate-smart governance, technology deployment and inclusive implementation of adaptation measures.

In 2023, Moldova approved the National Climate Change Adaptation Programme until 2030 and its corresponding Action Plan. The Programme provides an overarching framework for enhancing the country’s resilience to climate change impacts and mainstreaming adaptation across six sectors identified as most vulnerable: agriculture, water, health, transport, energy and forestry. It includes 4 cross-cutting goals and 96 targeted actions, ensuring full alignment with the Paris Agreement and the EU acquis. In addition, Moldova adopted a National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy by 2030 (2024)  to strengthen capacity at national and local levels for preparing and responding to climate-related hazards.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY GOVERNANCE

Moldova's energy sector is characterized by a heavy reliance on energy imports, particularly natural gas and electricity, with its domestic production meeting only about 20% of its electricity needs. This dependency has made the country highly vulnerable to geopolitical pressures, exposing it to energy price volatility and supply disruptions.

In response, Moldova has diversified its gas supply through increased imports from Romania and alternative routes. Simultaneously, Moldova enhanced electricity system stability by expanding interconnections with Romania and integrating with the European energy network (ENTSO-E).

These efforts not only improved energy supply reliability but also shifted the national energy balance toward greater self-sufficiency and integration with European markets. Coupled with rapid adoption of renewables and energy efficiency measures, Moldova is now better positioned to ensure energy security.

However, areas needing further attention include completing the transposition of all EU regulations related to energy and climate governance framework and advancing decarbonization of the energy sector. Hence, finalizing the transposition and implementation of the Monitoring and Reporting, as well as the Accreditation and Verification Regulations is of relevance for the country.

Moldova, through the adoption of the Law on Climate Action in 2024 has set out the 2050 climate neutrality target. However, the country has not yet adopted a long-term strategy with 2050 climate neutrality trajectory.

The country has adopted the NECP (2025) which supports the NDC implementation by outlining country’s 2030 targets for renewable energy, greenhouse gas emission reductions and energy efficiency. The Plan is structured along the 5 areas of the energy and climate governance framework (energy security, internal energy market, energy efficiency, decarbonization as well as research and innovation) and describes the public policies and investments envisaged to achieve the targets set for each of the 5 dimensions. 

Thus, by 2030, the Republic of Moldova commits to achieving a national target of 30% renewable energy in final energy consumption, while keeping primary energy consumption below 2,949 ktoe and final energy consumption below 2,762 ktoe. Additionally, GHG emissions on the right bank of the Nistru are expected to decrease by 68.5% compared to 1990 levels, with potential reductions reaching up to 88%.

The NECP also outlines concrete actions to enhance energy security, including diversifying energy import routes, strengthening national energy system interconnectivity through new connection lines with Romania and ENTSO-E, and developing a long-term energy strategy through 2050.

Regarding energy efficiency, the Plan foresees the renovation of residential buildings with support from the Residential Energy Efficiency Fund, energy savings of 0.8% of average annual consumption through new technologies and efficiency measures, installation of smart meters and promotion of clean, energy-efficient transportation.

On the internal energy market front, the NECP envisages opening, modernizing, and liberalizing the market, establishing intra-day and day-ahead trading, coupling with European markets via the Moldovan Energy Market Operator, and creating cross-border markets for balancing energy systems.

CLIMATE POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND ADVANCING COOPERATION WITH THE EU

The Moldova-EU Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (AA/DCFTA), fully entered into force on 1 July 2016, after being provisionally applied since September 2014. The Agreement significantly strengthens the political association and economic integration between Moldova and the EU.

During the European Council on 23 June 2022, EU leaders granted EU candidate status to the Republic of Moldova. In November 2023, the European Commission issued a recommendation to open accession negotiations. In December 2023, EU leaders decided to launch negotiations, and accession talks were formally opened in June 2024 at the first accession conference between the EU and the Republic of Moldova. In January 2025, the European Commission sent the first screening report on the Fundamentals Cluster to the Council. In June–July 2025, the bilateral screening process took place by clusters.

On 22 September 2025, the country successfully completed the screening process with the European Commission. This included Chapter 27 – Environment and Climate Change under Cluster 4: Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity, which was reviewed for its alignment with the EU climate acquis and assessed for readiness to further implement relevant climate policies and regulatory frameworks.

Despite the progress achieved in developing and aligning national policies and legislation with the EU climate acquis, gaps remain and further efforts are needed to strengthen the regulatory framework and enhance institutional capacities to ensure effective implementation of climate action in Moldova.

EU4CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN MOLDOVA

Moldova is committed to climate neutrality by 2050 but faces challenges from enhancing policy and regulatory frameworks (e.g. climate and energy governance, MRV for inventories and ETS, etc.), institutional capacities gaps, sectoral climate vulnerabilities, local level adaptation needs and climate risks, etc.

EU4ClimateResilience addresses these challenges through the following targeted interventions:

• Supporting the development and implementation of climate-related policies and more specifically contributing to the elaboration of a long-term low-emission development strategy.
• Aligning Moldova’s capacities with EU MRV requirements for ETS and more specifically, introducing the independent verifiers and improving the functionality of the MRV for ETS information system
• Advisory support for enhancement of the MRV for inventories;
• Capacity building of relevant national and local authorities on climate action 
• Provide methodological support for development of Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans, as well as development of new generation of SECAPs with adaptation dimension included
• Implementation of demonstration projects on nature-based solutions for addressing climate risks at local-level

Through these interventions among others, EU4ClimateResilience will strengthen Moldova’s institutional capacity, resilience in vulnerable sectors and alignment with EU standards. Throughout the project, the best international and EU practices will be applied.

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